A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
