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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.