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This surely should not continue. The logic defies sense for it to persist. And yet, it does.

A Historic Victory Defying Expectations

Aston Villa entered Saturday's top-flight clash at Chelsea aiming for a historic record of eleven consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in the distant past. For much of the match, this feat seemed improbable, as Chelsea dominated proceedings, took the lead, and could have added to their advantage. But, Chelsea are frailty when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa now possess a baffling habit of securing wins on the road after falling behind.

First, the striker equalised, the ball ricocheting in off his shin and the post following his first effort was saved by Robert Sánchez. Subsequently, he secured the winner with a deft header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. Watkins might believe a bit of luck was overdue, and there's no question the first goal involved a large slice of good fortune. At the moment, however, fortune seems to be smiling on Villa.

The Statistics Behind an Unlikely Run

The last nine of these eleven straight wins were by a single goal. They have kept a shutout in only one of those matches. Their underlying metrics have been superior in just six of those fixtures, and in two of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come from behind. This formula seems unsustainable, but pundits have been claiming that for some time, and Villa keep on winning. The key question is whether their outcomes will finally align with their displays or if their level of play can improve to justify the results.

This seems unsustainable be sustainable, but everyone has been saying that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.

A Defining Trait: Belief

Fighting back is not merely a feature of the current campaign. Over the past three seasons, no side has gained more points when trailing than Villa's fifty-four; 18 of those were secured this term, fifty percent more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have contributed nine goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under their manager.

• Firstly, they possess a deep-rooted confidence that means no deficit ever feels insurmountable. This is, in part, self-perpetuating: the more they come from behind, the more they believe they can do it again.
• Secondly, Emery has proven very skilled at influencing games through his substitutions.

The Emery Effect

While Chelsea won the expected goals 2.1 to 1.4, Villa were dominant from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple substitution. Ollie Watkins replaced Malen, who had struggled with few chances. Immediately, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's movement in behind caused problems. Onana and Sancho also came on, strengthening the midfield and providing the flank presence they had lacked earlier.

Chelsea had ten attempts to Villa's none before the substitutions; afterwards, Villa created eleven opportunities to Chelsea's four. By the end, Villa were in control and could have won more comfortably. Once again, Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca seemed unable to respond as the game turned against him; the impression remains that he is more proficient at implementing a tactical plan with time to prepare than making adjustments in the moment.

Moment of Magic

Villa have cultivated a welcome habit of players producing moments of sensational quality to turn games. Morgan Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him working the ball onto his right foot and whipping a finish home has become a recurring theme. It was the winger who changed the game from the bench at Leeds. Watkins changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of players such as Ezri Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. At present, it's seldom the whole side playing flawlessly, but sufficient individuals within it delivering to earn the victories.

What Comes Next?

Will they be able to keep going? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season nears its midway point, they have to be considered as in the title race, arguably more so than teams like Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. Tuesday's away game at Arsenal will be a major examination of that status. Villa defeated Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only won the xG but posted an xG forty percent higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.

The Gunners have assembled their own run of single-goal victories, winning three in a row without ever being wholly convincing. The upcoming clash will be a test for both teams – and if Villa secure a 12th game in a row, it would become almost impossible to dismiss their title credentials.